Macro-oriented analysis today
Russia first, then other nations.
I’ll go category by category, starting at countries/regions of relevance and then going to individual economics. First on the list I have seen impact waning on is Russia, despite the biggest debt issuance they have ever done. Why do I mention this? Because the Ruble is basically unavailable. Ruble has pretty much stayed the same price since the war, despite economic collapse.
If that’s not enough, remember that their GDP is set to drop. They’re doing a loan on themselves for war funding, but that doesn’t do anything for their total economic collapse.
The most realistic impact of this is probably going to end in Putin being overthrown. So more money but for what?
Clearly there isn’t a lot of love for Putin out there. I would expect whoever else to come in to basically submit and lay down arms immediately and look to negotiate sanctions. Also, of note is that the Russian propaganda machine is suddenly acting as if the US should stop funding the war. That translates to “let Ukraine die”, as Russia is looking for genocide - not just simple warfare. AP being something unbiased on this, for once.
versus how clear the coverup is:
So yeah, Hunter Biden nonsense comes up again, of course. How else can we distract from convictions for Russian money laundering? So…that sums up Russia.
Sadly, this is mostly politics that shouldn’t be implicated in pricing and economics, but here we are.
Why does this matter? We’ll get to that in the next part. Which is, how this impacts the US economy, China’s, India’s, Brazil’s and so on. (BRICS).