Easy weekly macro
let's see how things look
First, BTC and a reminder for anyone who wants to read my stuff, sign up.
4h/daily: Shaky/no confidence/consolidation. 4H in the “could go bullish” but effectively neutral for the time being. Daily in the “slowly turning bearish”, but not strongly. So nothing to confirm at the moment. Weekly isn’t any better. Overall bearish until at least $22k.
As a reminder, January 5th/12th are more likely catalysts for anything interesting at the moment. Note below from Serious Trouble - SBF has legal things that have to be posted by then, so if he fails any of them, that will explicitly be a catalyst for a macro-bearish move ahead. From Popehat’s article linked below:
Two non-parent sureties have to sign the bond, pledging amounts approved by the government, by January 5.
-snip-
His parents must post the equity in their home by January 12.
SPY 0.00%↑ side - Consolidation before a major crash. Nothing else there, no bullish anything anywhere. Technically it’s still relatively bullish, but we’re about to likely convert downward unless we can hold above $402, which I would not be betting on. In fact, we hit that 396? Then it’s put season, see ya next year in the $200’s.
However, all things are going to drop. Natural gas is not looking good, like we will go lower for example. Quite contrasting the whole EU gas shortage. It’s pretty funny when you compare this one - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/eu-could-face-30-bcm-gas-shortage-next-year-iea-says-2022-12-12/ (Reuters, gas shortage risk) with this one - https://www.cnn.com/2022/12/25/europe/russia-yamal-europe-gas-pipeline/index.html (Russia: $$ plz kthx!). I warned Russia is in deep troubles, and this shows the sort of desperation that their financial sector is in. Not once, but twice. Remember, I deeply dislike Russia, but the real problem is, if Russia collapses, all economics will be impacted. The reality is we live in a Global Market. So even China and Russia are just as much impacted by the US as they impact the US to some degree. The US will be better off, but it doesn’t mean it’s immune to globalization.
As always given the market right now, see you at the bottom. Short term up, long term down.